The opportunity
Our client is a Dubai-based family office and multi-strategy investment firm launching a dedicated events-driven trading desk focused on prediction markets and event contracts. Our client is seeking a founding Trader / Portfolio Manager to design, launch and scale the desk.
This full-time role is based in Dubai, UAE, and reports to the Senior Portfolio Manager. Working directly with senior management, you will define strategy, build the research and execution stack, establish risk frameworks and shape future hires. Capital allocation is discretionary and scales with demonstrated, risk-adjusted performance.
Responsibilities
- Originate and run alpha-generating strategies across prediction markets and event contracts, including esports, sports, politics, macro, economics and entertainment.
- Build probability, pricing and forecasting models; backtest and validate trading edges; and translate research into live, appropriately sized positions.
- Identify mispricings through cross-venue and related-market arbitrage, information advantages, liquidity provision and market making.
- Own the P&L of your book, with disciplined position sizing, drawdown limits and exposure management.
- Build data pipelines, execution tools, monitoring and reporting alongside senior management.
- Define hiring needs and help recruit traders, researchers and engineers as the desk grows.
- Report performance, attribution and risk clearly and regularly to the Senior Portfolio Manager.
Requirements
- A proven, verifiable positive P&L track record in prediction markets, with evidence from relevant prediction-market venues. Candidates must be prepared to substantiate their results.
- Quantitative research and trading experience spanning statistical modelling, probability, forecasting and backtesting, with a rigorous approach to separating signal from noise.
- A pipeline of original alpha ideas and the ability to explain the edge behind each strategy.
- Strong programming ability, preferably Python, and proficiency with SQL. Experience with APIs, data engineering and automated execution is a strong advantage.
- A solid understanding of event-market microstructure, including fees, liquidity, order books, settlement and resolution risk.
- An owner’s mindset, with the autonomy and accountability to build a trading business from the ground up.
Preferred background
- Experience at a proprietary trading firm, hedge fund, quantitative trading firm, sportsbook trading desk or comparable environment.
- Experience building or managing a small team, or a clear vision for doing so.
- Automated or systematic trading strategies deployed in live production.
Why join our client?
- A founding seat on a new desk, with direct access to senior management and decision-makers.
- Discretionary capital allocation that grows with performance.
- Meaningful influence over strategy, technology and future team composition.
- A Dubai base connecting Asian, European and US market hours.
How to apply
Apply through Prediction Talent with your CV, a summary of your prediction-market track record covering venues, trading period, capital deployed, returns and drawdowns, and a short note outlining one or two strategies you would run from day one.
Applications are treated in strict confidence. Shortlisted candidates will be asked to verify their track record.
Compensation
$150,000–$300,000 per year
Our client offers competitive compensation with meaningful performance-linked participation in the P&L you generate.
