Most people think prediction markets are built by traders.
They're not.
Successful prediction markets are built by multidisciplinary teams.
Quantitative Research
Design pricing models.
Improve forecasting.
Measure calibration.
Trading
Provide liquidity.
Identify mispriced markets.
Manage risk.
Engineering
Build matching engines.
Trading infrastructure.
Data pipelines.
Market surveillance.
Economics & Market Design
Create incentive structures.
Improve market efficiency.
Prevent manipulation.
Product
Translate complex markets into intuitive user experiences.
Operations & Compliance
Prediction markets operate in heavily regulated environments.
Strong legal and compliance teams are becoming increasingly important.
Growth
Liquidity attracts liquidity.
Community builders, partnerships and growth teams play an outsized role.
The common thread
Every discipline shares one characteristic:
They think probabilistically.